When Kamala Harris became the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, the party saw a huge surge in the enthusiasm of its voters. It effectively dragged the party down Race too With Donald Trump and the Republicans, that continues to motivate Democrats to vote today.
She and Trump are even in battleground states that decide the Electoral College, and now Harris holds a 3-point edge nationally.
The shifting campaign of late has also opened up a historical dynamic, a race within a race to define both. Harris and key issues.
TrumpFor his part, he has a lot to his advantage: he leads with people who tell him economy A key factor is that he leads voters who say he’s not doing well financially.
But voters are telling us about more problems than that – AbortionAt the level of democracy, the boundary between them – and the competition – is marked by a pronounced gender gap between men and women and very different views on which candidate will support them.
Heading into the convention, many voters are still learning about Harris, making this week an important test for the party. A third say they still don’t know what she means. Most voters think his views are similar to Joe Biden’s — but not quite the same. And he is partly — but not entirely — Mr. Biden is seen as connected to the economy.
Democrats continue to close the gap with Republicans in expressing their willingness to vote; Today, they are effective in saying so, even with Republicans.
Behind the gender gap election
The gender gap has widened slightly and is now approaching the 2020 level. But it’s more than a vote-breaker. This underscores very different priorities and sensibilities.
First, women are more likely than men to see Harris as someone who “fights more for people like you.” Women would rather see Harris fighting for people like them than Trump.
Second, views on gender equality initiatives are linked to voting.
People who feel that efforts to promote gender equality between men and women go too far in America today tend to vote for Trump in greater numbers. Especially for men who think so.
For Harris, those who feel that efforts to encourage equality are not enough or right.
Third, women help Harris more economically than Mr. Biden.
While still trailing Trump on the issue, Harris is doing 8 points better than Mr. Biden in June, saying the economy is a key factor for them. This group is now effectively even with Trump. Among women who say inflation is a major factor, Mr. He is 7 points ahead of where Biden was.
Abortion: Deja-vu from 22?
For rank-and-file Democrats, abortion and the state of democracy trump the economy as the top factors in their vote.
Voters in favor of abortion rights, at least in terms of votes, Mr. Maybe feel better about Harris than Biden. He gets a higher share of the vote among women who want abortion legal than he does among women.
And 71% of voters think Harris will try to pass national legislation protecting abortion.
Three-quarters of voters want mifepristone available. Nine in 10 believe Harris will build or keep it, while seven in 10 say Trump will try to limit access to it.
But Democrats are more likely than independents or Republicans to cite abortion as an important factor.
Fewer voters overall say abortion is an “important factor” in their vote than say the economy.
So a key metric to watch in this campaign is whether that vision extends beyond party lines.
The race to define Harris (and how much separation does she need from Biden?)
People know Trump, whether they agree with him or not. Nearly nine in 10 voters say they know what he stands for.
But it’s a little less for Harris because he’s already been nominated. A third say they still don’t know what she means.
It adds another key to watching the convention as Democrats try to define his message before the Trump campaign.
His policy views were thoroughly Republican.
But Harris said his views were mostly Mr. He’s doing well among voters who disagree with Biden’s views. This obviously applies to Democrats, but it also applies to independents.
How is she tied to Biden’s economy?
The economy has long been seen as dire, but Harris’ role as vice president is only partly connected.
Harris’ decisions as vice president are said to have affected at least some of the US economy.
Meanwhile, Trump is leading the way in the idea that he can lower food and grocery prices. It was measured before Harris presented inflation projections Friday speech. That sentiment, however, is driven more by general belief than by any particular policy.
When we follow up with voters who think their grocery prices will be lower if Trump wins, when asked why, most say it’s because of their “general trust” in Trump rather than the specific policies he’s proposed.
Whether Trump can hold or widen that gap, or whether Harris can begin to close it, will likely be another key watch at the convention and in the coming weeks.
How is she tied to the boundary?
Trump is increasingly seen by voters as having policies that reduce border crossings.
Trump leads among those who say the border is the main reason for their vote. In fact, it’s the largest lead he has on any issue group, even over inflation. (This is partly because Republicans overwhelmingly cite it as a factor.)
Harris is somewhat, but not entirely, tied to US border policy: One-third think his decisions as vice president have “a lot” to do with the current situation. Although it is largely driven by Republicans, it outnumbers the number of voters who connect his decisions as vice president to the economy.
But border crossing attempts are said to have slowed, and the percentage of voters who call the border a crisis, though still high, has declined slightly since the spring.
After all, most of this competition is already locked up. Very few voters express an open mind to considering another candidate — which will probably be determined by voter turnout.
So, for Democrats, this convention will be, in part, about maintaining that enthusiasm among the base.
State-level estimates were updated from this Statistical sampling of CBS News Show close races in all seven battlegrounds — all within the margin of error — and both Harris and Trump are in position to win if the election is held today.
Here’s how polling issues play out. Voters can identify many factors as factors in their decision.
All of them lead to the Democratic convention as they — and as Republicans face it — decide what 2024 will ultimately look like.
This CBS News/YouGov poll was conducted August 14-16, 2024, with a representative sample of 3,258 registered voters nationwide. The sample was weighted by sex, age, race, and education based on the US Census American Community Census. The US Census is the current census, as well as past polls. Respondents were selected to be representative of registered voters nationwide. The margin of error for registered voters is ±2.1 points.
