- Tropical Storm Helen will soon form in the western Caribbean Sea.
- It is likely to become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico by Wednesday.
- Most forecast models suggest a hurricane landfall on Florida or the northern Gulf Coast on Thursday.
- Cyclones are stronger at landfall with life-threatening storm surge, high winds and heavy rainfall.
- Impacts may push well inland by Friday in parts of the south.
Tropical Storm Helen is expected to form in the western Caribbean Sea and is forecast to intensify into a major hurricane before hitting Florida or the northern Gulf Coast later this week.
Interests along the US Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the situation closely and stay up-to-date on how the forecast will unfold in the coming days. Hurricane plans ready to go
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Watches and warnings issued: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Lower Florida Keys, including Key West and Big Pine Key.
A hurricane watch and tropical storm warning have been issued for parts of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, from Cancun west to Tulum, including Cozumel. They are in effect for parts of western Cuba, generally west of Havana, and a tropical storm warning has been issued for Grand Cayman in the Cayman Islands.
This means tropical storm conditions are expected and cyclonic conditions are possible over these areas within the next 36-48 hours.
Where is it now: There is a wide depression in the western Caribbean Sea. Thunderstorms are gradually forming over this region.
It’s called Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine, a process the NHC uses to issue watches and warnings before a tropical depression or storm develops.
Here is the timeline:
– Monday-Tuesday: A tropical depression or storm could develop as soon as Monday or late Tuesday. Once the system reaches tropical storm strength, it is expected to be named Tropical Storm Helen. By late Tuesday, Helen could become a tropical storm or even a Category 1 hurricane near Cancun, Cozumel and western Cuba. Heavy rain, strong winds and storm flooding are likely in those areas. Parts of western Cuba could receive 12 inches of rain or more.
– Wednesday: Helen can have some lasting effects in Cancun, Cozumel, and western Cuba, especially early on. We expect Helen to enter the southern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane. Some high surf and outer rainbands may reach parts of Florida’s Gulf Coast from the Keys to the Panhandle.
– Thursday: Although there is still some uncertainty in the forecast, Helen is forecast to make landfall as a major hurricane Thursday afternoon or evening. Although computer forecast models suggest that a landfall is likely anywhere from Florida’s Big Bend to the Panhandle, remember that hurricane impacts (surge, wind, rain) often occur far from the center. There are still some computer ensemble model predictions. Tracks range as far east as Florida’s west coast and as far west as southeast Louisiana or Mississippi. Therefore, everyone along the northern Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should continue to monitor this forecast.
– Friday: This system will push inland quickly with some sustained strong winds and locally flooding rains in southeasterly areas.
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Current storm status and projected track
(The red-shaded area represents the possible path of the tropical cyclone’s center. It should be noted that the impacts of any tropical cyclone (especially heavy rain, high tides, coastal flooding, winds) usually extend beyond its forecast path.
How strong can it be: A major cyclone is forecast to intensify ahead of landfall in Helen Gulf.
Because heat content is a favorable ingredient for intensification, and the map below shows an abundance of deep, warm water in the northwest Caribbean Sea and parts of the Gulf of Mexico. In fact, there is a degree of heat in the Gulf of Mexico High levels are recorded at this time of the yearAccording to Brian McNoldy, a tropical scientist at the University of Miami.
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But it’s not just warm water.
Forecast models suggest that instead of shearing and tilting Helen’s circulation, upper-level winds may spread over Helen.
For those reasons, Helen could reach at least Category 3 intensity before making landfall in the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
US Rain Probability: While it’s too early for details on other impacts — including storm surge and winds — we expect Helen to bring heavy rain generally along its path and to the east.
Southeastern areas are expected to see more rain from Thursday to Friday, but heavy rain is likely from Wednesday onwards. This rain can lead to flash floods, especially when combined with storm surge and high terrain.
Precipitation Outlook
(Although not all of the precipitation shown above is from this tropical system, it should be interpreted as a broad overview of where the heaviest precipitation occurs. Higher amounts may occur in areas with thunderstorms or thunderstorms lasting more than a few hours. .)
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and freak weather are his favorite topics. Approach him X (formerly Twitter), texts, Facebook And Bluesky.
