Harris vs. Trump race after Biden drops out of race: NPR

The 2024 presidential campaign has been reset with even more voters drifting into the undecided camp as Kamala Harris becomes the likely Democratic nominee. NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll Finds out.

Harris and former President Donald Trump are statistically tied, but 1 in 5 independents, including 3 in 10 independent women, now say they’re undecided. So these next few weeks will be crucial for Harris to reintroduce himself.

The survey found that Democrats now feel better about their chances, and that black voters, in particular, are more eager to vote.

But both Harris and Trump relate to key voting blocs for Trump, from younger and non-white voters; and independents, suburbanites and white voters overall for Harris.

As for Biden’s decision to step aside from the presidential race, Americans overwhelmingly approve of his choice, and two-thirds think he should stay in office and not resign.

Harris and Trump are statistically tied

• In a head-to-head race, Trump has 46%, while Harris is at 45%, with 9% undecided. A Marist poll earlier this month found just 2% undecided between Trump and Biden. The survey of 1,309 adults was conducted Monday through online research panels. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percentage points, meaning results can be approximately 3 points higher or lower.

• In a five-way race, Trump and Harris each had 42%, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. got 7%, his lowest since Marist tested him since April, and independent Cornel West and the Green Party’s Jill Stein got just 1 vote each. %

• Notably, Harris holds more Gen Z/Millennial voters and non-white voters than Biden as the race moves from a head-to-head race with Trump to third-party polls. Earlier this month, Biden dropped 13 points with those younger voters and 10 points with non-white voters. On the other hand, Harris mostly maintains his support with those groups.

A significant number of different groups have now moved into the undecided category

With so many others undecided, Harris has a chance that Biden doesn’t. It’s another key indication of how much of a reboot this move is for the campaign.

Democrats overwhelmingly want Harris to be the nominee

• By a 77%-22% margin, Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents want him to be the nominee.

• Black voters were the most likely of any subgroup to say they were more likely to vote for Biden if he stepped aside — 50% said so. Latinos (46%) and voters aged 18-29 (43%) also say they are more likely to vote now.

Americans agree that Biden made the right choice not to run for re-election, but most think he should finish his presidency.

• 87% of Democrats and 87% of Republicans say divestment is the right thing to do, including 90% of independents.

• Two-thirds (68%) think Biden should finish his term. Republicans are largely split, with 53% saying he should resign and 47% saying he should serve out his term.

Many said the decision puts Democrats in a better position to win

• By a 41%-24% margin, Americans said Biden’s decision boosts the Democrats’ chances this fall. A third said there was no difference.

• Two-thirds (65%) of Democrats say it increases their chances. And even independents think so, with 38%, versus 21% who think no. A plurality of Republicans (42%) think it won’t make a difference, and more of them believe it will hurt than help (36%-21%).

Harris starts with a net-negative favorable rating, but is slightly better than Trump

Harris enjoys a 40%-44% positive-negative rating, while 15% have never heard of her or are unsure. Trump gets a 43%-49% approval rating, with 8% not sure.

• In the last Marist poll, Biden’s unfavorable rating was 7 points worse than Harris’.

• Trump’s unfavorable rating is 4 points lower than the Marist poll taken before the convention, which could see some convention bounce.

• Black voters have Harris’ highest favorable ratings — 61%. White evangelical Christians (73%) and men without a college degree (62%) give Trump his highest approval ratings. Those numbers show which voters are likely to be strong segments of each candidate’s support base.

Trump’s running mate, Ohio Sen. This is an important period for JT Vance as many have yet to form an opinion about him.

• Forty-one percent had never heard of him or weren’t sure. 28% have a favorable opinion and 31% have a negative opinion.

There is no consensus about the choice of vice-president because they are largely unknown

• Twenty-one percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents want to see Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, and 21% want Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg as VP. Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (17%), Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly (13), North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper (8), Illinois Gov. JP Pritzker (7), and Kentucky Gov. Andy follow. Beshear (6%) and Maryland Governor Wes Moore (6%).

Biden’s presidential legacy, colored by partisanship, is not seen as a positive one

• About half of those surveyed say Biden is below average or will be remembered as one of the worst presidents in history (31% said one of the worst, and 19% said below average). One quarter said he was average, and another quarter said he was above average or one of the best presidents.

• Opinions differed by party, with 85% of Republicans and 57% of independents saying Biden would be seen as below average or one of the worst, and 55% of Democrats saying he was above average or better.

• For context, when Trump left office, large numbers — 60% — said he would leave below average or among the worst. In 2016, 40% of respondents said former President Barack Obama would be considered one of the best or above average, while 31% said he was considered one of the best or worst.

Digging into the numbers, Harris has work to do among independents, suburban voters and white voters

• Harris only draws 32% of independents in the race against Trump, while Biden has 46% in Marist’s last poll. He only gets 40% of white voters, compared to Biden’s 47%; Only 42% of small-town/suburban women compared to 58% for Biden.

• Trump now leads suburban voters, 50%-42%, while Biden led, 56%-42%.

• But Harris has a chance to convince these voters, as 1 in 5 independents (21%) are undecided, up from 4% previously; 11% of small town/suburban women are undecided, up from 2% in the last poll; suburban voters, compared to 2% previously; and 7% of white voters, only 2% of whom said so earlier this month.

Trump, however, is seeing declines among younger voters, non-whites and those without degrees

• Trump is down 9 points with voters under 35 and those without a college degree. He fell 8 points with non-white voters and parents with children under 18.