In the last week before the playoffs for most leagues begin, we are faced with an interesting slate of games. As far as I can see the totals are low, incl A 30-point over/under In a Thursday Night Football showdown between New England and Pittsburgh. But there are some great matchups, including San Francisco vs. Seattle, Dallas vs. Philadelphia, and Kansas City vs. Buffalo. While I’ve seen many close matchups in my leagues in Week 13, this week could bring a lot of blowouts because the fantasy points are not evenly split.
If your studs come from Jacksonville, the LA Rams, Buffalo, Philadelphia or Seattle, you could be in for a disappointing week. Similarly, if your opponent’s roster includes the Cowboys, Broncos, Chargers, 49ers, Colts, or Packers, I’d be concerned. Not only is this week’s schedule more upside down than usual, but it’s the last week of your final playoff push. So I’m using this little introductory soapbox to encourage you to throw away everything you know and start fresh with a fresh slate and a startup mind.
I’ve discussed this concept of beginner’s attitude before, and I’ll turn to it now when checking my lineup. Yes: Same guys…same places…click submit. But what if you destroy the whole place and rebuild only this week? I mean, you can see why DFS appeals to me so much, but the way season-long rosters appear on your screen naturally limits your imagination. Envisioning your dream team for the week against this opponent may lead you to create a subtly different roster. Against the Browns, C.J. Forget what round you drew him with Beathard.
A beginner’s attitude doesn’t mean you overthink every decision and go against what you’re doing, it gives you the freedom to assume you don’t have all the answers yet and aren’t putting forth the best line of effort. Week 14 you can consider your bench and the free agents available in your league. With that in mind, I’m going to change my normal “don’t think too much” part – telling you to start good players despite bad matchups, weather, QB play, etc. – and instead focus on multiple players. Second guessing bench this week. As usual, we’ll end up with some guys who wouldn’t start in most leagues, but will need a boost or fill-in for Week 14 lineups.
It’s okay to bench
Calvin Ridley and Evan Engram
For Jacksonville against Cleveland, C.J. Beathard starter — the league’s toughest pass defense and fantasy’s worst nightmare — I’m avoiding all Jaguars not named Travis Etienne. Beathard is unlikely to develop Ridley or Engram into a fantasy matchup-winning play. Very little.
Nico Collins
Benching Collins may go against the grain of the fantasy rankings, but Chaz Gardner and the Jets’ secondary leave very few fantasy points against opposing top-5 pass protections and wide receivers — a lot. In PPR leagues, Collins’ natural high volume has been boosted a bit by the loss of Tank Dell, but I think he’ll see priority coverage. Noah Brown or Robert Woods will likely be the most open receivers on Sunday and C.J. Stroud is not the league’s leading passer with his failure to find the open man. The bottom line is that Collins has a big hurdle to overcome to get you a top stat line this week. If you’re Dak Prescott and CeeDee Lamb’s manager, use Collins. But if you’re rusty and need all the upside you can find, Collins isn’t your guy.
Tony Pollard
As soft as the Philly pass defense (most fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs and WRs) is, they leave very little for the running backs. Pollard has had a polarizing season so far and three weeks have been good, with both primacy and recency effects screaming at our brains to keep him in. Pollard has had some midweek upsets against run-friendly defenses like Arizona and the Giants. He ran into a brick wall the first time he faced Philadelphia, the 49ers, not to mention the Patriots or Rams. Like Collins, if you have someone who can provide a heavy workload in a great matchup, I’d go for it. Dallas isn’t dumb; They will go there to beat the Eagles in the air for the first time since Prescott threw for a season-high 44 times.
Matthew Stafford
With QBs dropping like flies across the NFL, you might not think you have the luxury of sitting someone like Stafford coming off two great games this season. Still, watching the Ravens face off in Baltimore, I can’t help but get a little nervous. Baltimore has the worst QB matchup, third-worst for WRs, and second-worst overall for fantasy. They allow opponents the fewest points per game, lead the league per game, and force an average of 1.6 turnovers per game. They also allow the fewest passing touchdowns of anyone in the league. I’m a broken record here, but the deck is stacked against Stafford this week, and I wouldn’t trust anyone in the Rams’ pass game. Puka Nacua is the only exception and he is also in danger this weekend.
Tinker with
Damien Pierce
When the Texans face a stout pass defense in the New York Jets, the run game should find an easy path to victory. Pierce overtook Devin Singletary in the workload in Week 13 and finished with a rushing touchdown. If he’s been dropped in your league (I see him in 35 percent of Yahoo leagues) or if you have him on the bench, I like the idea of ​​dropping him this week. Houston is the favorite here, as the Jets are not only susceptible to the run, but could spell a favorable game script for the Bears. All signs point to a strong and successful run game by the Texans, giving the Bears the upside you want.
Jonathan Mingo
While Carolina’s new coaching staff didn’t exactly light up the fantasy world in Week 13, they gave the Bucs a run for their money. What stood out to me was the quick turnaround in the WR hierarchy. Adam Thielen has been a PPR beast with multiple double-digit target games, but it was Mingo who saw 10 targets (6/69) in Week 13. The Bucs’ pass defense is a sieve, but the timing certainly looks like the new regime in Carolina wants to see what they have in the rookie. If Mingo and Bryce Young are to be the building blocks of a future franchise, it would make sense to start building chemistry between them. Unfortunately, Young hasn’t thrown for more than 200 yards in a game since Week 8, and New Orleans has an above-average pass defense. Still, as underdogs, expect the Panthers to rely on some big plays to stay in this game, making Mingo a fantasy hero.
Isaiah is possible
He’s an obvious choice, but the Ravens’ bye last week is still worth mentioning. Might have a top 3 TE matchup with the Rams after posting a 4/40 line in Week 12 on six targets. I’d start him over Evan Engram in a league.
Gardner Minshu
If the QB injuries are the last you get and you get Minshoe, I like him a lot this week. In Week 13, both Michael Pittman and Alec Pierce were backed by a strong passing game from Minshew, who finished with 312 passing yards and two passing touchdowns. The Bengals are the seventh-best fantasy opponents, giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. This game should be a close one, which further points to Minshu being in a position to win.
(Top image: Sam Hodt/Getty Images)
